Olympics

Picks and prop breakdowns of upcoming Olympic events:

2024 Paris Summer Olympics (7/26-8/11) All odds Via FanDuel

The 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris are officially underway, with the formal opening ceremony taking place on Friday, July 26th at 1:30pm ET. American dominance at the Olympics can’t be understated, especially in recent years. The USA have taken home the most gold medals in five of the last seven Summer Olympics, and have the most overall medals in each of those seven games. Additionally, Team USA has taken home at least 100 total medals in seven of the last eight Summer games. Americans also lead the all time table by a vast margin; reigning over second place Soviet Union by 1514 overall medals with a staggering total of 2636 (among active nations, Germany ranks second with 1652 less than the U.S. at 974). This year, Team USA will be competing in each of the 45 different sports showcased, which have 329 unique medal events between them; the second most all time only behind the 2020 Winter Olympics in Tokyo which featured 339. Some USA stars to watch include track phenom Noah Lyles, who has his own props to set world records during his sprinting events. Team USA Basketball is loaded with the NBA’s best talent including the most recent American to win league MVP in Joel Embiid. Xander Schauffele, winner of two majors this PGA season, will also take part in this year’s Olympics on the golf course. As always, the USA’s best athletes will be a primary focus of athletics fans across the world.

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National Medal Props

While a somewhat effective way to predict total medal counts is simply going through each of the past Olympics and identifying trends in certain events, there is much more that goes into predicting an Olympic medal that meets the eye. A typically overlooked characteristic of international athletic events is the overall financial success of the nation in question. As Economists Andrew Bernard and Meghan Busse put it, “both a large population and high per capita GDP [gross domestic product] are needed to generate high medal totals.” China, the nation expected to give the USA trouble atop the medal table, ranks 99th worldwide in GDP per Capita, but the sweet spot for us will be inside the top 40. Among these nations in the sweet spot: Germany and the host nation France. Germany’s current Gold medal prop rests at 10.5, which they have gone over in all but one of the Olympics they have competed in since the nation was united before the 1992 Summer Olympics. Germany also ranks 28th worldwide in GDP per capita, while being the 19th most populous country. Now to the latter nation, France. It’s no secret that host nations see an increase in total medals at Olympic events. On average, host nations see a 50% increase in overall medals earned. This increase is due in part to the ability for a host nation to suggest new sports be added. In the previous Tokyo Olympics, Japan added karate, sport climbing, skateboarding, and surfing; all very popular in Japan, and all seeing Japan win more medals in those events than any other nation. This year, France pitched, and successfully added breaking (or break-dancing) to the list. While most sports-books don’t provide odds for the event due to its recent addition and lack of data, look for the French to take over. Additionally, France looks to capitalize on its 571 athletes attending the games, second most to only the USA and the most France has ever sent.

National Medal props to Watch:

Germany Over 10.5 Gold Medals: (-114)

France Over 24.5 Gold Medals: (+128)

Canada Over 20.5 TOTAL Medals: (Via Caesar’s +150)

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