Best Bets for the 2026 MLB Playoffs:
2026 NLWC Game 3 Picks and Best Bets
2026 MLB Playoffs Best Bets (All Odds Via FanDuel):
2026 Playoffs Player Prop Record: 7-2 (77.8%)
———————–
NLWC Game 3: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (10/1 @8:00pm ET)
Pitching Matchup: Aaron Nola (Why?) (PHI)/ TBD (Likely Grant Holmes for most) (ATL)
Lines: ML: PHI (-116)/ Spread: PHI (-1.5)/ O/U: 7.5
Picks: Phillies Win and Cover (4-3)
Player Breakdowns:
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL RF): I want so badly to pick Acuna for 2+ bases with the value that it carries. That said, he’s been walked or HBP four times over the first two games of this series. I can’t help but think Philly may be pitching around him. He has 19 hits in 14 games against Philly this season, including six multi-hit games and eight with two or more bases. He also owns the second highest batting average and OPS against Wheeler of any Brave, and is hitting 42 points higher against right-handed pitching this season. In the case Nola takes the brunt of the innings, Acuna is batting an insane .354 with a 1.080 career OPS against him all-time.
Trea Turner (PHI SS): I talked about this before game two, but since the start of September 2024, Trea Turner has 28 hits in 28 games against Atlanta, including a hit in all but two of Philly’s games against the Braves this season. His uptick in production against righties only increased yesterday thanks to a double and first-inning run to lead off game two. He gets another favorable matchup in game three in Holmes, who Turner is hitting .364 against with a 1.227 career OPS over 11 at bats.
Bryce Harper (PHI RF): The man is mere feet from having a homer in each of the first two games of the series. He now comes in with a chip on his shoulder after almost ending Philly’s season in game two, and has a career 1.125 OPS opposite Holmes to work with. Harper also sees an increase in production against righties of a full 78 batting average points and a whopping 340 OPS points. Harper also has an OPS north of 1.000 against all of Atlanta’s top four relievers by innings pitched, and a combined batting average of .444. Coming off a multi-hit game which saved Philly’s season, I like the two-time MVP to stay hot.
Pitcher Analysis:
Grant Holmes is expected to take the brunt of the innings, but don’t be shocked if he isn’t the starter. Holmes enters game three averaging less than five innings per appearance this season, only reaching the five-inning mark in half of his last eight outings. I could see Atlanta sending out an opener and ending with the bullpen, but Holmes should be the primary arm on Atlanta’s side of the mound.
Playoff Zack Wheeler is just different. The Phillies’ ace has a career 2.18 ERA in the postseason and a 1.56 ERA over his last six appearances. Included in those most recent six; a 1.2 inning scoreless relief effort in the 2023 NLCS to try and save the day. Atlanta holds a combined career average of just .225 against Wheeler. The man is simply dominant. Unless the line is obscene, I want any over I can get. I do not care what the talking heads say, if he gets the start, he won’t come off the mound until the wheels or arm fall off. And the Wheels are in his name.
Edit: Now, manager Don Mattingly has handed the reigns to Aaron Nola. Nola enters with a career 4.04 ERA in the postseason, with the Braves hitting a combined .288 opposite him all-time. I’m very curious to see how the workload is split between Nola and the other Philly arms, especially Wheeler and Jhoan Duran. Though, Duran is said to not be fully healthy after pitching two innings on Tuesday.
Top Props:
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ Hits/Runs/RBI: (-290)
Trea Turner Anytime Hit: (-260)
Bryce Harper 2+ Total Bases: (+110)
Add-Ins:
Dominic Smith Anytime Hit: (Odds Unavailable)*
*May not be in the starting lineup, but has the highest career BA and OPS against Wheeler of any Brave.
———————————-
Tips and donations always appreciated!:
Venmo: @Cayden-Stewart-5
