NCAA

NCAAF 2025-26 Season

Picks for Conference Championship Weekend (All Odds Via FanDuel):

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Big XII Championship: #5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs #11 BYU Cougars (12/6 @12pm)

Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)

Where to Watch: ABC

Lines: Texas Tech (-12.5) O/U: 49.5

Picks: Texas Tech Wins and Covers (27-13)

Analysis:

In the CFP era, every power conference team which finished with a record of 11-1 has been ranked in the top ten. Well, besides this year’s BYU team. The Cougars suffered their only loss of the season at the hands of the Red Raiders in disappointing, 29-7 fashion. However, the BYU’s season is on the line in the rematch, and with their current ranking of #11 placing them one spot outside the CFP bracket, they will likely need to win, or at bare minimum, keep it close, to have a shot at the playoff.

Though, that’s easier said than done against a defense as fearsome as the Red Raiders’. BYU has made their money on the ground, with RB LJ Martin and QB Bear Bachmeier each having outstanding rushing seasons, but each were held to minimal yardage in these teams’ first meeting. Martin was held to just 35 yards on ten carries, and with the spread this large, I don’t expect much more volume in this game. The Tech defense is led by LB Jacob Rodriguez, who’s name has been thrown around in Heisman candidacy conversations. He, and DE David Bailey power a defensive unit which leads the nation in opponent EPA per play and rank third in opponent success rate.

It’s also worth nothing how the first meeting between these teams turned out, as the score could have been far worse than it was. Texas Tech, a team which has converted on 88% of their red zone drives this season, was stopped five times. This screams positive regression, and one additional touchdown scored puts Texas Tech ahead by nearly 30 points. Texas Tech also still has something to play for themselves, as a loss puts them at the will of the committee who could shuffle them out of a host-spot in the bracket. As fun of a story as BYU is, Texas Tech is simply the better team.

Top Props:

(BYU RB) LJ Martin Under 69.5 Rushing Yards: (-114)

(BYU WR) Chase Roberts 40+ Receiving Yards: (-210)

(TT RB) Cameron Dickey 60+ Rushing Yards: (-350)

Add Ins:

(TT RB) Cameron Dickey Anytime TD: (-240)

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SEC Championship: #10 Alabama Crimson Tide vs #4 Georgia Bulldogs (12/6 @4:00pm ET)

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)

Where to Watch: ABC

Lines: Georgia (-2.5) O/U: 48.5

Picks: Alabama Wins and Covers (27-23)

Analysis:

Kirby Smart just can not beat Alabama. The Georgia head coach is a measly 1-7 all time against the Crimson Tide. This record includes three losses in past SEC Championship games, and a 24-21 home loss at the hands of the Tide this season.

Alabama is highly undervalued coming into this game, as most sportsbooks and bettors alike value Georgia’s eight game win streak over Alabama’s somewhat struggle to the finish. However, Alabama’s only loss since beating Georgia came at the hands of Oklahoma, who the Tide massively out-gained even with Oklahoma’s elite defense. Meanwhile, Georgia survived close calls against Ole Miss and Florida, and were held to just 16 points against Georgia Tech last week.

Georgia has also struggled against good passers, conceding standout performances to Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and even Texas’ Arch Manning. Alabama’s Ty Simpson has a good shot to be among the Heisman finalists, and will have a fully healthy receiver core at his disposal to pick apart a Georgia secondary ranked 55th in success rate on drop backs.

If Georgia is to win this game though, it will be with Nate Frazier having a big role. Frazier was benched in the first half against Alabama earlier this season following a fumble, but he had racked up 30 yards on just four carries before then. Alabama’s defense is allowing the fewest yards per game to receivers of any SEC team, but the most to RBs despite their 10-2 record. I expect a Nate Frazier revenge game.

Top Props:

(ALA WR) Isaiah Horton 25+ Receiving Yards: (-230)

(ALA WR) Ryan Williams 3+ Receptions: (-225)

(UGA RB) Nate Frazier 50+ Rushing Yards: (-210)

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BIG 10 Championship: #1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs #2 Indiana Hoosiers (12/6 @8:00pm ET)

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)

Where to Watch: FOX

Lines: Ohio State (-4.5) O/U: 46.5

Picks: Ohio State Wins, Indiana Covers (20-17)

Analysis:

This will be one of the games of the year when all is said and done. #1 vs #2 in the CFB rankings, led by #1 and #2 in the Heisman race with Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza running away. Though a tall task awaits those premier passers, as OSU and Indiana rank #1 and #2 in opposition points allowed.

With all of that said, the Buckeyes have a slight edge coming in the form of a stacked WR room. Jeremiah Smith is very much one of the best players in the country and could be the #1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Oh yeah, and there’s Carnell Tate, who should have his name called in the first round of this coming draft. As good as Indiana’s defense is, they have been just a tad more volatile than OSU to these elite receivers. Pair those two pass catchers with Bo Jackson out of the backfield for the Buckeyes, and you have a tandem which is next to impossible to take out of a game defensively.

My main reasoning for taking Indiana with the points is just because of how low scoring I expect this game to be. I would not be shocked if this is a similar affair to how we saw OSU open their season; a 14-7 barn burner in a similarly hyped-up affair against Texas. Additionally, and expectedly, underdogs benefit greatly from lower scoring games. If you have this as a high scoring game, take OSU with the points.

Top Props:

(OSU WR) Jeremiah Smith Under 75.5 Receiving Yards: (-114)

(OSU WR) Carnell Tate 50+ Receiving Yards: (-245)

(IND WR) Omar Cooper Jr. 40+ Receiving Yards: (-235)

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ACC Championship: #18 Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils (12/6 @8:00pm ET)

Location: Bank Of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)

Where to Watch: ABC

Lines: Virginia (-3.5) O/U: 57.5

Picks: Virginia Wins and Covers (30-20)

Analysis:

The ACC’s worst nightmare could very well come true on Sunday night. If Duke wins, due to overall rankings and other conference winners, no teams from the ACC will make the 12-team CFP bracket. A power four conference not having a single representative would be brutal. This is exactly why “they” won’t let it happen.

There’s more reasoning to my picking of the Cavaliers than just conspiracy, but it is noteworthy an ACC team can sink the conference’s 2025-26 championship bid.

Virginia beat duke by three scores in Durham just a few weeks ago (leading by as much as 31-3), and have proven time and time again they will step up when it matters. In addition to beating Duke, Virginia beat Cal and UNC, as well as dominated Virginia Tech to give themselves a chance to make the playoffs. Duke on the other hand was highly inconsistent; losing five total games on the year including an embarrassing fall to UConn, and a narrow one point win over a struggling Clemson squad in the final handful of games.

Chandler Morris has been the key to victory for Virginia, as the QB has a 10-1 record in games he’s started and finished this year for the Cavaliers. Morris also had one of his best games on the year against Duke, as he threw for 316 yards against a secondary which has been extremely woeful over the final stretch of the season. Virginia’s clutch factor paired with Morris is more than enough to showcase part two of the beatdown that was these team’s first meeting.

Top Props:

(UVA RB) J’Mari Taylor 70+ Rushing Yards: (-240)

(DUKE TE) Jeremiah Hasley 3+ Receptions: (-198)

(UVA WR) Trell Harris 4+ Receptions: (-360)

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Long Shot Conference Championship Parlay:

Texas Tech (-12.5): (-106)

Alabama Moneyline: (+104)

Ohio State Moneyline: (-184)

(OSU vs IND) Under 46.5: (-106)

Virginia (-3.5): (-120)

Total Odds: (+1999)

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