NCAA

March Madness 2026

Picks for Men’s March Madness 2026 (All Odds Via FanDuel):

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First Round Matchups to Watch:

Game 1: #8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs #9 TCU Horned Frogs (3/19 @12:15pm ET)

Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, SC)

Lines: Ohio State (-2.5) O/U: 146.5

Picks: Ohio State Wins and Covers

Analysis: Ohio State enters as one of the most battle-tested teams, having played nine games against tournament teams since Jan. 31. The Buckeyes’ main edge in this game comes in the form of offensive efficiency, and effective field goal percentage. OSU ranks 18th nationally in EFG% and 13th in offensive efficiency. On the other hand, TCU has struggled mightily on offense, ranking 200th in EFG% nationally. The Horned Frogs also struggle from the free throw line ranking 243rd in FT%, a factor all too important to not have in a close game. This game will be back and forth for the majority of the time, but OSU should pull away late.

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Game 2: #8 Georgia Bulldogs vs #9 Saint Louis Billikens (3/19 @9:45pm ET)

Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)

Lines: Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) O/U: 169.5

Picks: Saint Louis Wins and Covers

Analysis: After an untimely exit in the Atlantic 10 tournament, Saint Louis enters with a chip on their shoulder. Fortunately, they have been a sneakily strong team on both sides of the ball. The Billikens rank third in EFG% on offense, and second in EFG% allowed on defense. The only other team ranked in the top ten in both metrics is third-ranked Michigan. Saint Louis also doesn’t fall under the same problematic umbrella of a weak strength of schedule as most mid-majors, ranking just outside the top third of the country in opponent net rating. Georgia holds an advantage in effective height, but the Billikens have looked better on both sides of the ball. It also helps they received the Joe Lunardi stamp of approval.

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Game 3: #8 Villanova Wildcats vs #9 Utah State Aggies (3/20 @4:10pm ET)

Location: Viejas Arena (San Diego, CA)

Lines: Utah State Aggies (-2.5) O/U: 146.5

Picks: Utah State Wins and Covers

Analysis: Once again, the selection committee has failed to adequately appreciate a strong Mountain West team. The Aggies were more than deserving of a seven seed, but instead are one of the more under-seeded teams this year. Ranked 16th in EFG% and 88th in EFG% allowed, Utah State is far better on both sides of the ball. Utah State also boasts more experience in March over the last few seasons, ranking in the top 100 in experience while Villanova enters 289th. Both teams struggle from the free throw line, but the Aggies should have enough of a cushion to prevent any late misses from being worrisome.

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Top Upset Picks:

Game 1: #6 Louisville Cardinals vs #11 South Florida Bulls (3/19 @1:30pm ET)

Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)

Lines: Louisville Cardinals (-7.5) O/U: 164.5

Picks: South Florida Wins and Covers

Analysis: This will undoubtedly be one of the best games of the first round. South Florida uses their physical style of play to great benefit, leading the nation in second chance points and finishing second in total rebounds. The Bulls also hold onto the ball very well, ranking 80th in turnover rate, while forcing giveaways at the 56th highest rate nationally. On the other hand, Louisville boasts a somewhat fast paced top-25 offense that can hang with the Bulls. However, the Cardinals rank 157th in turnover rate on offense, and below average in turnovers forced. As evenly matched as these teams are, I trust South Florida to make fewer mistakes and capitalize more often on Louisville’s.

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Game 2: #6 North Carolina Tar Heels vs #11 VCU Rams (3/19 @6:50pm ET)

Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, SC)

Lines: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) O/U: 153.5

Picks: VCU Wins and Covers

Analysis: This is another true toss-up game. UNC leads in most metrics on both sides of the ball, but the major story is the loss of their star Caleb Wilson, who averaged nearly a 20-point double-double per game in his games this season. Since his injury, which sidelines him for the entire tournament, UNC has dropped three games, including a first round exit at the hands of Clemson, and a blowout against NC State. Further, VCU is far better from the foul line. While the Rams’ 139th doesn’t jump off the page, UNC’s 319th ranking does in a very bad way. VCU also carries a bit more experience, and plays at a higher tempo than a shorthanded UNC team.

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Game 3: #5 Wisconsin Badgers vs #12 High Point Panthers (3/19 @1:50pm ET)

Location: Moda Center (Portland, OR)

Lines: Wisconsin (-10.5) O/U: 164.5

Picks: High Point Wins and Covers

Analysis: Expect fireworks in this meeting as this battle of high-flying offenses could very well see 200 total points scored. Both teams rank in the top 60 in offensive efficiency (with High Point carrying an edge), and both are very good at holding onto the ball. However, turnovers will once again be a key deciding factor. While both teams turn the ball over at a top-five fewest rate in the nation, High Point also records takeaways at the fifth highest rate while Wisconsin ranks 324th in the metric. Wisconsin is also hurt by a 24th ranking in EvanMiya’s opponent adjustment feature, meaning they can compete with good teams, but fail to beat inferior ones. I trust High Point to make far fewer mistakes and be able to keep up with Wisconsin’s three-point heavy offense.

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Don’t be Shocked If:

#13 Hofstra takes down #4 Alabama: (+580)

Analysis: When the bracket was first released, I liked Alabama by a wide margin. However, with Crimson Tide star Aden Holloway now in legal trouble and highly unlikely to play in the tournament, the opportunity is there for the Pride to pull off a stunner. Hofstra has experience against good teams this season, dominating UPenn and only falling by four to UCF (both qualifying for the national tournament) as well as picking up power-conference wins against Syracuse and Pitt. Hofstra also boasts one of the best guard pairings in the country, including CAA Player of the Year in Cruz Davis. Beyond that, Hofstra has won 11 of their last 12 games and enters the tournament on a heater.

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#15 Queens stuns #2 Purdue: (+3500)

Analysis: What fun is a prediction piece without at least one crazy upset? Queens excels at spreading the ball around, with six different players averaging 10+ points per game. Further, the Royals rank 15th in EFG%, as well as 54th in turnover rate and 88th in FT%. On the other hand, Purdue ranks 228th in EFG% allowed, which opens the door for the Queens offense to take advantage. Lastly, Queens’ senior guard Chris Ashby is Jack Gohlke part two. Ashby has taken 291 three-pointers compared to 49 two-pointers this season, and was the ASUN Preseason Player of the Year. If Purdue is even a little bit off their game (like we’ve seen before in a loss to #16 seeded Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023) Queens has a wide open door for a shocker.

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National Champion: #1 Michigan Wolverines: (+370)

Analysis: Michigan, Duke, and Arizona are as good a group of top seeds you will ever find. However, Michigan stands out to me most, and has the easiest path through their region to the final four. Michigan is one of only two teams to rank top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom, as well as EFG% and EFG% allowed on BartTorvik. Further, they have had the third hardest strength of schedule, and play at the 22nd highest tempo, the highest of any top three seed. They are also the only one seed to rank in the top 100 in FT%. Michigan is the most well rounded team and best built to go all the way.

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Additional Props:

#3 Illinois to Reach Final Four: (+370)

Analysis: Illinois is simply a slightly worse Michigan. The Fighting Illini rank in the top 40 in both EFG% and EFG% allowed, and have the ninth fewest turnovers of any team. They are also very strong on the offensive glass, ranking third in offensive rebound percentage. This ability to rebound well stems from having one of the tallest teams in the nation, and a third place ranking in effective height, which analyzes the impact of each team’s taller players. Lastly, they place sixth in FT%, which gives me confidence they can pull out a win late in a hard fought game.

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#11 South Florida to Reach Sweet 16: (Odds Unavailable)

Analysis: South Florida’s next step in advancing to the Sweet 16 after a win over Louisville will most likely be a win over third-seeded Michigan State. These two teams match up extremely well with one another, with South Florida’s strengths being put to great use. For starters, USF has a massive advantage in turnovers, ranking 56th in turnovers forced while Michigan State ranks 208th in giveaways. Michigan State has also earned their wins by out-rebounding their opponents, but now runs into the second best rebounding team in the country, especially on the offensive glass. The winner will be whoever takes control in rebounds, and I trust South Florida to do just that.

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