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2025 Daytona 500 Race Picks (Odds Powered by FanDuel)

Race Info: Daytona 500

Start Time/Date: 2:30pm, February 16th 2025

Pole Sitter: Chase Briscoe

Starting Grid:

1. Chase Briscoe (#19) – Row 1
2. Austin Cindric (#2) – Row 1
3. Bubba Wallace (#23) – Row 2
4. Erik Jones (#43) – Row 2
5. William Byron (#24) – Row 3
6. Chris Buescher (#17) – Row 3
7. Ty Dillon (#10) – Row 4
8. Denny Hamlin (#11) – Row 4
9. Ross Chastain (#1) – Row 5
10. Joey Logano (#22) – Row 5
11. Tyler Reddick (#45) – Row 6
12. Corey LaJoie (#01) – Row 6
13. A.J. Allmendinger (#16) – Row 7
14. Todd Gilliland (#34) – Row 7
15. Austin Dillon (#3) – Row 8
16. Ryan Blaney (#12) – Row 8
17. Chase Elliott (#9) – Row 9
18. John Hunter Nemechek (#42) – Row 9
19. Justin Allgaier (#40) – Row 10
20. Christopher Bell (#20) – Row 10
21. Kyle Busch (#8) – Row 11
22. Kyle Larson (#5) – Row 11
23. Ty Gibbs (#54) – Row 12
24. Riley Herbst (#35) – Row 12
25. Michael McDowell (#71) – Row 13
26. Shane van Gisbergen (#88) – Row 13
27. Ryan Preece (#60) – Row 14
28. Cody Ware (#51) – Row 14
29. Josh Berry (#21) – Row 15
30. Cole Custer (#41) – Row 15
31. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) – Row 16
32. Noah Gragson (#4) – Row 16
33. Carson Hocevar (#77) – Row 17
34. Brad Keselowski (#6) – Row 17
35. Justin Haley (#7) – Row 18
36. Daniel Suarez (#99) – Row 18
37. Zane Smith (#38) – Row 19
38. Alex Bowman (#48) – Row 19
39. Martin Truex Jr. (#56) – Row 20
40. Jimmie Johnson (#84) – Row 20
41. Hélio Castroneves (#91) – Row 21

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Top Picks to Win (Listed in order of odds):

Driver 1: Joey Logano (+1300)

Breakdown: The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion enters the first race of 2025 with an unsurprising co-favorite designation. Last season, Logano won four races, plus the all star event at North Wilkesboro, and finished with 13 total top-tens. Logano also has a good history at Daytona, that is, when he isn’t caught up in “The Big One’, which looms every year. The #22 Penske Ford has wrecked out of three of the last five 500’s, but has finished in the top-ten in six of his last his last seven completed runs, including a win in 2015. If he keeps the car clean, Logano will certainly be in the mix late in the race.

Driver 2: Ryan Blaney (+1300)

Breakdown: Ryan Blaney is always a key driver to watch in superspeedway races, but especially at Daytona. In his seven completed 500’s, Blaney has finished in the top-ten in six of them, with his worst finish in those six being eighth. He also has won at Daytona in the past, taking home the 2021 Coke 400. Blaney has wrecked out in three of the last six 500’s, but historically, this has proven to be a good omen for the following year. Blaney wrecked in both the 2019, and 2021 500’s, but finished second and fourth in 2020, and 2022 respectively. Yes, you guessed it, he also wrecked out last year. Blaney’s speed is undeniable, and too is his consistency in big races, though still searching for his first Daytona 500 win.

Driver 3: Denny Hamlin (+1400)

Breakdown: Denny Hamlin is the most accomplished and successful driver at Daytona in the field. With the exception of Jimmie Johnson, Hamlin is the only fielded driver to win the 500 multiple times, and he’s done it on three occasions. Hamlin leads the field in total laps completed at Daytona, as well as percentage of laps led, leading 13% of his career 3,673 laps. Overall, Hamlin has eight top-tens, including his three wins, so I have to pick continued success and longevity over anything else.

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Mid-Long shots (Listed in order of odds):

Driver 4: Bubba Wallace (+2600)

Breakdown: Welcome to the boom or bust section of picks, where Bubba Wallace is a true 50/50 to avoid the big one. This is due to his aggressive driving plan, always working his way to the front of the pack early rather than hang back and wait like teammate Denny Hamlin. Even with this risk, the payoff is massive as Wallace has three top-five finishes in four completed races, with two of those being runner-ups in 2018 and 2022. These high finishes have proven to be significant, as Wallace has the highest average finish at Daytona of any driver in the field at 11th. Wallace placed fifth in last year’s event, and won at Talledega in 2021, so if he can avoid the big one, he is a notable threat for the win.

Driver 5: A.J. Allmendinger (+5500)

Breakdown: While he’s bounced around both the Cup Series and XFinity Series, and didn’t race in the top level between 2019-2022, Allmendinger has been consistently good at Daytona. Dating back to 2017, Allmendinger has four straight top-ten finishes in the 500, and has finished in the top-ten in seven of his last ten Daytona races overall. Allmendinger has a career average finish of 18th at Daytona, which while not eye-popping, ranks higher than big names such as Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and more. While this success is exceptional, the best stat of all and one which caught my eye is his percentage of laps run. “The Dinger” seems to have a knack for avoiding big wrecks, as he’s completed 94% of laps across his 22 career Cup Series events at Daytona. Not only is he a threat to place high if he avoids the big one, but he most likely will avoid such an event.

Driver 6: Justin Allgaier (+5500)

Breakdown: Here is the true miracle long-shot to make yourself look like a genius to your friends. Allgaier has never won in the Cup Series, and has done the vast majority of his driving in the XFinity series sub-division. However, he has dominated at that level. Allgaier has six top-tens in his last seven Daytona events, and has only finished outside the top-15 once across his completed races since 2011. Allgaier will also have some experienced help in the pit stall this time out, with crew chief Greg Ives having had a car qualify in the top three in seven straight seasons between 2016-2022. If anyone is built to be this year’s ultimate shocker, its Justin Allgaier.

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Props to Watch:

Denny Hamlin to Win: (+1400)

Ryan Blaney Top 5 Finish: (+200)

Joey Logano Top 5 Finish: (+200)

Bubba Wallace Top 10 Finish: (-110)

A.J. Allmendinger Top 10 Finish: (+200)

Justin Allgaier Top 10 Finish: (+240)

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