Horse Racing

Picks and analysis for all three legs of the Triple Crown and the Breeder’s Cup:

2023 Breeder’s Cup Classic Picks

Longines Breeder’s Cup Classic (Race #9): Post Time 3:40PT/6:40ET

The Field (Odds Via CBS/Sportsline):

1. Arcangelo (SCR)

2. Zandon (12-1)

3. White Abarrio (4-1)

4. Missed The Cut (30-1)

5. Derma Sotogake (20-1)

6. Saudi Crown (12-1)

7. Clapton (20-1)

8. Ushba Tesoro (4-1)

9. Senor Buscador (30-1)

10. Dreamlike (30-1)

11. Bright Future (10-1)

12. Arabian Knight (3-1)

13. Proxy (12-1)

Top Five Finishers:

P1: Ushba Tesoro (4-1)

Breakdown: I have been back and forth between my top two finishers in this race. While both Ushba Tesoro and Zandon have very high upside, Ushba Tesoro has been on the better stretch. He has won seven of his last eight races on dirt, including his last six in a row, and 16 of his 24 career runs. He has also reached the podium in 20 of his 24 races with an additional four third place finishes. Tesoro’s racing strategy should also benefit him in a race chock full of quick starters. There will be a guaranteed battle for position in the opening furlongs of the race, something which Ushba Tesoro has been able to back away from before making a late race run. While Santa Anita isn’t kind to horses that use this strategy, as long as he doesn’t fall too far back in the pack he should be in great position.

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P2: Zandon (12-1)

Breakdown: Zandon is the definition of consistency. He has reached the podium in 12 of his last 13 races, with his only finish off the podium during that stretch being a fourth place showing back in December of last year. While consistently top three, he has only won three races over that span and just one since April of last year. While I don’t think distance will be a problem for him, it is important to note that Zandon has only run in one race of this one and a quarter mile length over the last two years, which saw him place third. This year, Zandon has finished second in three of his four runs, by far his most prevalent finishing position. Overall, Zandon’s lack of ability to complete the job makes me skeptical and hesitant to pick him in a race of this caliber. A bet on him to place or show should be a safe one, and certainly safer than a bet to win.

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P3: Arabian Knight (3-1)

Breakdown: Even though Arabian Knight may not have the vast racing experience as some of the other horses in this race, he is benefitted heavily by his trainer. Bob Baffert is one of the most notable names on all of horse racing due to his widely impressive win percentages in most famed events. The Breeder’s Cup Classic is no exception. Baffert is the winningest trainer in the Cup’s history; training four past winners and going for a fifth with the favored colt. Arabian Knight has only raced in a career four races, three coming this year. However, he has won three of those four, two this year, with his worst finish being third. The colt’s latest race, and latest win, was of the same length as this Classic; a mile and a quarter long victory back on September second. Arabian Knight is certainly one to watch due to his hot start to his career, and his trainer’s legendary status.

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P4: Saudi Crown (12-1)

Breakdown: Saudi Crown is yet another somewhat inexperienced horse, but one riding a hot start to their racing career. All five of Saudi Crown’s career runs have come this year, and he’s seen three wins out of those five. He is coming off a win in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Casino, but has not competed or ran in a race this long in his short career. Saudi Crown will also have a problem using his typical race strategy. He tends to move to the front and set the pace in most of his races, just as he did in the Pennsylvania Derby. This time around, he has more of a competition and will be going against more horses that share that same race strategy. Due to this fact, and his plain inexperience in races , especially ones of this length, I don’t see him executing his plan perfectly and therefore failing to crack the top three.

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P5: Bright Future (10-1)

Breakdown: Bright Future is hoping to live up to his name after a solid stretch of races this year. While a mile and a half race proved to be a touch too long for him, handing him his worst career finish of eighth, he is the only one of my top five to race in multiple contests of at least one and a quarter miles long. Bright Future also won his only race at exactly that distance; the 2023 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Besides his eighth place finish, he has won three of his other four starts this year and has an elite jockey on his side. John R. Velazquez has won an insane 6,548 career races and is one of the most famed jockeys in the sport. Velazquez is also one of the more experienced jockeys in the field at Santa Anita specifically. He raced there full time the winter of 2021-22 and raced in the Santa Anita Derby on April ninth of 2022. Velazquez’s mere presence on a horse in this race immediately makes me look at such a horse as a possible outside candidate.

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Biggest Fade: White Abarrio (4-1)

Breakdown: While White Abarrio comes in among the favorites, a co-favorite on some sports books, I don’t think he should be at that status. I have many questions about White Abarrio’s unproven ability to contend in longer distance races. He has only ran in one race of at least a mile and a quarter long; the 2022 Kentucky Derby. In that race he finished a measly 16th and never saw the front of the pack in the back half. Additionally, while he has six wins under his saddle, only two of them have come in races with at least a one minute, 43 second finishing time. This goes to show how fast White Abarrio dies out in later races and why he should be avoided come the Breeders Cup Classic.

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